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Scenario 03 · Lessons from Ukraine

War and armed conflict

Sweden, Finland and Norway have sent every household a guide to preparing for war, and since 2025 the European Union asks every home to be able to last at least 72 hours. It isn't meant to scare: Ukraine's experience shows that civilians who prepare cope much better.

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The realistic picture

In a modern war, most of the population isn't at the front. What affects them most are attacks on infrastructure: power, water and heating cuts lasting days, frequent air raid alerts, occasional shortages and a lot of disinformation. Much of it is a combination of scenarios this site already prepares you for.

Before

  • Supplies for at least a week, as Sweden and Norway recommend, and ideally two: water, food that doesn't need cooking, medication and cooking fuel.
  • Heat without the grid: warm clothes, sleeping bags and one room you can keep warm. In Ukraine, attacks on the grid peaked in winter.
  • Know your shelter: the nearest public shelter, a basement, an underground garage or the subway. At home, a windowless room in the middle of the building.
  • Documents and money: paper copies and an encrypted USB copy, cash in small bills and some in a strong currency.
  • A family plan in case you're separated with no phone: meeting points and a contact outside the country. See family plan.
  • A battery radio and backup power to charge phones and lights.

During an air raid alert

  1. Go to the nearest shelter or basement. If there isn't one, stay in a hallway or interior room.
  2. Follow the two-wall rule taught in Ukraine: keep at least two walls between you and the outside. Stay away from windows, because broken glass injures many people.
  3. Stay until the alert ends, even if you don't hear anything.

Don't film or post strikes, air defenses or troop movements. Geolocated images help the enemy correct its attacks. Only share information from official sources.

Reliable information

In a conflict, disinformation is a weapon too. Check before sharing, distrust messages urging you to act right now, and follow authorities on radio and official channels. Keep key numbers and frequencies written on paper.

If you have to leave

  • Leave early, with your go-bag ready: documents, money, medication, chargers and something warm.
  • Follow humanitarian corridors and the routes authorities announce.
  • Tell your out-of-area contact where you're going.
  • Blend in: civilian clothes and nothing that looks military. See the gray man principle.

Holding on

Conflicts last months or years. What helps most is keeping routines, protecting your sleep, leaning on neighbors and limiting time spent on the news. See your mind in an emergency.